Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
